RII 6 is just a few weeks away and the schedule has been released for the event. As the first part of a three part series we have taken the match schedule and ran it through the RII Beirut Match Simulator 2000. Let us take a look at the top 8 predicted rankings and likely picks for those players.
The rankings calculated by the RII Beirut Match Simulator 2000 are based off of multiple variables, such as strength of schedule, past competition performance, alcoholic stamina, and unlisted intangibles. (Note: For the purposes of this simulation, players with no past RII record were given a “neutral rating” and are based mainly off of schedule strength)
1. Dave Carter (8-0)
Simulated Losses:
- None
The Lowdown:
After a disappointing exit in 2012, Dave Carter will be back this year with a vengeance. While Carter doesn’t exactly draw cupcakes for opponents, he certainly carries the strongest partner set of the competition. Couple that with his impeccable RII qualification record, and he is a sure bet to at least be within striking range of the top spot at the end of qualifications. The question is: After qualifications, who will take the ride with him?
Most Likely Upset to Sim:
Match 33 with Andy Grady vs Andrew Shartenberg and Justin Foss: This match is a doozy. Carter finds himself playing with a familiar partner which the sim sees working out to his advantage, however Shartenberg is an elite player, especially in qualifiers, and Foss is solid all around. A bad bounce here, a missed shot there, and this one can easily tip in the other direction.
Likely Pick:
Rick Blight (Blight accepts)
2. Andrew Shartenberg (7-1)
Simulated Losses:
- Match 33 with Justin Foss vs Dave Carter and Andy Grady
The Lowdown:
Shartenberg is hungry, and he has a history of dominating in qualifying rounds. This year will prove no different. Much like Carter, Shartenberg will benefit from a good partner set. There are a few difficult matches thrown in there which could tip the scales in one direction or another, but overall you can bet that he will be riding the wave to the top of the rankings once again this year.
Most Likely to Upset Sim:
Match 52 with Joel Autry vs Paul Vasquez and Joe Menassa: This match just about broke the sim. A very intriguing matchup in which the advantage goes to Shartenberg based on the fact that the match happens about that time when traditionally Joel Autry is on fire. However, the defending champ is a force to be reckoned with and a very strong second year player in Paul Vasquez could cause for this match to bounce the other way.
Likely Pick:
Eric O’Brien (O’Brien accepts)
3. Pat Fagan (7-1)
Simulated Losses:
- Match 16 with Andy Grady vs Joel Autry and Eric O’Brien
The Lowdown:
Could this be the year that Fagan brings home the cup? The qualification schedule could help him get there. There is a very good chance that 7-1 could turn to 8-0. The lone loss for Fagan is a match full of solid players which could go either way. The sim gave the matchup to Autry and O’Brien based on Andy Grady’s poor qualification record in past years, however, Fagan could be good enough to tip the scales back towards his direction on that one.
Most Likely to Upset Sim:
Match 34 with Art Dutra vs Joe Menassa and Rayvon Miller: This is not an easy match to predict any way you cut it. Dutra should prove to be a strong partner for Fagan in this match, but once again a champ is a champ, and his partner Rayvon could tear it up at any given moment. This should be one to circle on your schedules.
Likely Pick:
Tim Moreau (Moreau accepts)
4. Rick Blight (7-1)
Simulated Losses:
- Match 28 with Mattie Fails vs Chris Carnevale and Andy Grady
The Lowdown:
Once again, Rick Blight will be a contender for the top spot. His schedule is difficult, very difficult. The sim puts him over the top based on his rock solid history in qualifications. If Blight plays to potential, he should be a contender for the number 1 seed.
Most Likely to Upset Sim:
Match 37 with Miki Oliver vs Paul Vasquez and JR Casey: While Miki Oliver is a strong partner for Rick Blight on this one, the wild card here will be Paul Vasquez. Vasquez started out 2012 on fire, if he carries any of that momentum into this match, JR is more than enough partner to make life very difficult for Rick Blight. This is another great match with major seeding implications.
Most Likely Pick:
Accepts Dave Carter
5. Eric O’Brien (6-2)
Simulated Losses:
- Match 22 with Karla Schindler vs Paul Vasquez and Dave Carter
- Match 55 with Andrew Morrison vs Rick Blight and Tim Moreau
The Lowdown:
EOB is back, and expect him to be strong. His schedule has high points and low points, but for the most part he has good partners and good matchups. Two losses come from two very tough scenarios which could go his way in the right situation. Karla Schindler could be a strong partner this early in qualifications, and Andrew Morrison is certainly strong enough to take on last years champ and runner up…but they are hard ones.
Most Likely to Upset Sim:
Match 16 with Joel Autry vs Andy Grady and Pat Fagan: This match is about 60/40 in the sim right now. Andy Grady does not have a good history early in qualifications, but with a strong partner like Pat Fagan they could provide a pretty large hill for O’Brien and Autry to climb. Great early match to catch if you have the time off!
Most Likely Pick:
Accepts Andrew Shartenberg
6. Andrew Morrison (6-2)
Simulated Losses:
- Match 40 with Jonathan Curran vs Jesse Wilkinson and Will Carpenter
- Match 55 with Eric O’Brien vs Rick Blight and Tim Moreau
The Lowdown:
This could very easily be a 7-1 venture for Andy Morrison. The sim sees match 40 as close to 50/50 as it gets, which means very good things for “The Preferred” one. Morrison’s schedule is not easy, but for the most part he has stacked partners, which will help him climb the rankings. A win in match 55 is also not out of the question, which could put him in the discussions for the number 1 spot.
Most Likely to Upset Sim:
Match 23 with Pat Fagan vs. Mike DeSousa and Dan Larochelle: This one is a little bit of a stretch, but possible. DeSousa is a former champ, and Dan Larochelle was a fantastic player early on in the qualifications last year. If Morrison or Fagan hits a bit of a cold streak, this one could be dangerous.
Likely Pick:
Jesse Wilkinson (Wilkinson Accepts)
7. Art Dutra (6-2)
Simulated Losses:
- Match 25 with Jeff Fortin vs Andrew Shartenberg and Tom Schindler
- Match 41 with Chris Carnevale vs JR Casey and Dave Carter
The Lowdown:
Lets be honest here, both of the losses in the sim are very much in play for Dutra. While the duo of Shartenberg and Schindler is a tough one to overcome, Fortin is capable of helping Dutra pull off the upset. Match 41 is no gimme for JR and Carter either. If Dutra plays to his potential, his name could float to the top 3 and from there anything can happen.
Most Likely to Upset Sim:
Match 34 with Pat Fagan vs Joe Menassa and Rayvon Miller: See Pat Fagan’s entry. Same deal. When you play a champion, there is always room for trouble.
Likely Pick:
Jay Trzaskos (Trzaskos Accepts)
8. Andy Grady (6-2)
Simulated Losses:
- Match 16 with Pat Fagan vs Joel Autry and Eric O’Brien
- Match 49 with Jonathan Curran vs Karla Schindler and JR Casey
The Lowdown:
Andy Grady has not been the most solid qualifcation player in history, and his schedule is not exactly easy. Where this year differs is in his partners. Grady has one of the stronger partner sets of all the players, thus helping him float to the top 8. Furthermore, the sim’s losses could each very easily flop in his favor, thus vaulting Grady into contention for the top 3. If Grady can perform strong out of the gate, the sky could be the limit for the two time champ.
Most Likely to Upset Sim:
Match 3 with Joe Menassa vs Rob Zeuge and Dan Larochelle: This is a tough one to have as the first match of the day if you are Andy Grady. The upside is that you are with the defending champ, the downside is that Zeuge and Larochelle are much stronger out of the gate. This match will be a bit of weight on Joe Menassa’s shoulders unless Grady gets his act together.
Likely Pick:
Joe Menassa (Menassa Accepts)
On The Fringe (5-3 Records):
- Rayvon Miller
- JR Casey
- Robert Zeuge
- Jesse Wilkinson
- Joel Autry
- Chris Carnevale
- Joe Menassa
- Tim Moreau